Edward Jay Epstein, a nuclear security expert, has analyzed whether Iran is going nuclear, and if so, when. Frighteningly, the answer to those two questions are "Yes", and "Very soon": http://www.edwardjayepstein.com/Nuclearelephant.htm. This isn't just conjecture on his part; he looks at what it takes to go nuclear and how far along the Iranians already are.
I don't think that the world will wake up to this until Tel Aviv is a smoking heap of nuclear rubble, and even then, most people will probably just cheer...........
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