The Syrian econ0my is in shambles (though amazingly, they STILL have mone to buy weapons from the Russians and Chinese), and now there are reports that there have been power failures across the country this summer: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/15/world/middleeast/15syria.html?_r=1&oref=slogin.
Why is this so significant? Because dictatorial regimes which face domestic turmoil, or the potential of it, frequently react by "distracting" the public with war. And, what would be more popular with a restive Arab population than a war against the hated Zionist/Fascist/Nazi/Colonialist/Imperialist/Jewish State?
As well, let's not forget that Basher Assad is not as strong or pragmatic a leader as hsi father, Hafez Assad. Hafez Assad was a cold-blooded, mass murdering psycho, but he was also unquestionably "The Man" in Syria. His chinless son holds no allegiance from anyone, and weak leaders often attempt to consolidate their hold on power by engaging in warfare.
These are just some things to ponder as the tensions between Israel and Syria mount over the Golan Heights.
2 comments:
Hi BHG,
Interesting that both Olmert and Assad have publically announced that there is nothing brewing on the border between Israel and Syria.
I believe that you have hit the nail on the head, as to why there is need for caution concerning Syria. No doubt that Syria's economy is in chambles and that Assad needs another conflict (but not too large) to distract the people.
It wouldn't surprise me if your scenario plays out in the very near future.
You're right. Bashar is a little pisher who still wants to make a name for himself. This does not bode well for the region.
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