Iran

As I watched the news over the weekend, I couldn't help but follow the story of the Iranian seizure of 15 British sailors and marines from Iraqi waters (yes, they were in Iraqi waters) late last week. As the story broke, I couldn't help but wonder whether the British Navy had been taken over by a French Admiral, given how quickly the Iranians seized the Britsh troops. The whole situation is also kind of reminiscent of the 1979 U.S. Embassy takeover in Tehran, and we all know that it took 444 days (I may be off about this number) for that situation to play out.

The scary thing to me is the impunity with which the Iranians conducted the seizure. They clearly have no fear of the British government, and in fact, summoned the British Ambassador to Iran to register their "displeasure" at what they termed to be the outrageous and extreme provocation. Maybe it's just me, but I would think that the Iranian funding of Shiite militias in Iraq and the participation of Iranian troops in the so-called insurgency would register as a provocation, but what do I know?

The Iranians are many things, but they are not stupid. The leadership of the country may be crazy by our standards, but it would be very, very foolish on our part to think that the action of capturing the British sailors was anything other than a calculated move which was conducted with a long-term goal in mind. The Mullahs and their frontman, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, know that the support for the Iraq War is pretty much non-existent, especially in the cities of England. They also know that British Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of the war's strongest proponents, is in the twilight of his leadership, and that it would not take much to push Prime Minister Blair's eventual successor, be they from the Labour Party or the Conservative Party, to simply pull the plug on the remaining British troops in Iraq and bring them home. Further, they know that there would be a "domino" effect of sorts once this occurred, as the departure of British soldiers and sailors would place even more pressure on U.S. troops.

Ultimately, what Iran wants is a Persian Gulf free of Western (Read: AMERICAN) influence. Those 15 British sailors and marines are now pawns in a game with that much bigger goal.